Major trends in the Russian labour market and its medium-term prospects
Research object of the surveys presented in this report is the dynamics of job creation and job destruction, labour productivity, wages, employment and unemployment.
Research purpose of the project is the comprehensive analysis of major current and medium-term trends on the Russian labour market.
Empirical base of the research is provided by the official data collected by Federal State Statistics Service (“Rosstat”) on various issues. The studies presented were mostly concentrated both on the period of 1990s and 2000s in order to understand long-term trends better. The authors also used the data provided by various international statistics departments (OECD, United Nations Statistics Division, European Map of Job Flows, World Input-Output Data Base etc.) to conduct cross-country comparisons.
Research results showed that wage increase rates in contemporary Russia are in general lagging behind the rates of labour productivity growth. This pattern takes its most vivid form in the industrial sector allowing for further benefits in its costs reducing mechanisms. Thus, the development of the Russian economy should be based on the advancement of certain types of manufacturing which still preserves competitive advantages. Russian industrial enterprises should be integrated into global production chains and attract foreign direct investment. However the current state of Russian labour market indicates the possible display of negative trends that could make the development paths mentioned impossible. These trends are related to the new economic crisis and are demonstrated by reduction in real wages, working hours and recruitment levels while the level of layoffs in corporate sector does not change. Based on these trends it can be supposed that the mechanism of labour market adjustment to the crisis would be the same as previously. Results presented also show that there is a huge intraregional variation in the levels of labour productivity dynamics that largely depends on the separate short-term regional projects implemented by the state. Present report also includes results on the effect of labor productivity on the dynamics of unit labor costs and the international competitiveness of Russian goods.
Implementation of the research results. Results presented in the report are primarily concerned with current and medium-term trends in the Russian labour market and can be used in policy recommendations.
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